Thu 27 Aug 2026

The end of speculative data centres? What Ofgem's new grid rules mean for developers

The UK has many of the ingredients needed to support the growth of data centres. Access to renewable energy, available land and increasing demand for digital infrastructure have all helped strengthen the case for investment.

But securing a place in the electricity connections queue could soon require developers to make a much firmer financial commitment to their projects.

Ofgem has launched a consultation on reforms designed to reduce the number of speculative and non-viable data centre projects seeking grid connections. Demand connection applications across Great Britain have risen from 41GW to 125GW in less than a year, with data centres accounting for at least 80GW of that increase.

At the centre of the proposals is a new Data Centre Commitment Fee. Relevant developers would need to pay the full fee on acceptance of a connection offer. If a project fails to progress in accordance with the rules, that money could be lost.

The sums involved could be substantial. Ofgem is proposing a fee of between £237,500 and £712,500 per megawatt of connection capacity, equivalent to around 2.5% to 7.5% of average project costs. For a large development, that would represent a significant financial commitment at a relatively early stage of the project.

Developers would also face new milestones requiring them to demonstrate that their projects are credible. That could include evidence of an end-user, procurement of electrical equipment with long lead times and the financial and technical capability to deliver the development.

For Britain's growing data centre market, that could have significant consequences.

The reforms come as the Scottish Government and Westminster are actively trying to attract more data centre investment. Both the UK Government's AI Opportunities Action Plan and the Scottish Government's AI Strategy identify data centres and infrastructure as a priority and commit to removing bottlenecks and progressing a pipeline of investment opportunities.

That combination of energy supply and government ambition strengthens Britain's proposition to data centre investors. But Ofgem's proposals mean developers looking to capitalise on that opportunity may need to demonstrate much earlier that their projects have the commercial and financial substance to proceed.

Moving risk forward

Data centre projects require substantial investment long before they become operational. Ofgem's proposals would add another consideration at an early stage of development.

For developers, the question will increasingly be how confident they are that a project can progress before committing further capital to securing its grid position.

That places greater importance on the arrangements surrounding the project. Developers may need greater certainty over land rights, funding and prospective customers earlier in the process.

Agreements between developers, landowners, investors and other parties will also need to reflect who carries the risk if a project does not progress as expected.

The effect could be particularly significant for more speculative developments, where grid capacity has been secured well before the commercial proposition has fully matured.

A higher bar for development

There is a clear reason for reform. Ofgem argues that non-viable projects can occupy valuable space in the connections queue, delaying developments that are ready to proceed and making it harder to plan future network investment.

For credible developers, clearing speculative projects from the queue could ultimately be positive. Projects with committed funding, viable sites and customers behind them may have a better opportunity to progress.

But it also raises the bar for entering and remaining in the market.

For developers, grid strategy can no longer be treated separately from the wider commercial development. Land, funding, customers, infrastructure procurement and connection arrangements will increasingly need to move together.

Ofgem's consultation remains open until 16 September. The final shape of the reforms is still to be decided, but developers seeking scarce grid capacity will increasingly be expected to demonstrate that they have both the intention and the resources to use.

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